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1989-02-24
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KDPokAnl
KD Poker Analysis - Version 1.0 - February 1989
A Product of KD Ranch Enterprises (c)
[Written in Turbo Pascal 5.0]
NOTE:
Most of the information and instructions needed to use this program
is summarized in the online help and/or is displayed on screen when
pertinent. This .DOC file simply provides elaboration for clarity.
GENERAL:
KDPokAnl is actually two programs in one:
1). The PLAY mode emulates those extremely popular (and addictive)
video poker machines found all over the place in legal gambling
areas. There are a lot of these games floating around on bulletin
boards (including a couple from KD Ranch Enterprises) and even some
available commercially. This specific version will play fast (even
on a 4.77 mhz machine) and can be slowed to virtually any speed with
which you are comfortable. It also allows you to set the payoffs and
whether you want to play with Jacks or Better OR Tens or Better.
These last two items are important because the real video poker
machines will vary dramatically. You set this one up just like the
one(s) that took all your money the last time you were in Vegas.
2). The ANALYSIS mode allows you to set up any hand and draw to that
hand repeatedly to help you determine the best strategies while
playing these video poker machines. This is really the reason this
program was built.
Playing video poker properly is much more complicated than one would
think. It is certainly more difficult than blackjack or craps from
a mathematical perspective. Both of those games can be distilled
down to a reasonable set of probabilities, which when combined with
their fairly simple payoffs, can be calculated with a great deal of
accuracy. The big problem with video poker is NOT calculating the
probability of successfully drawing to any given hand -- any first
year statistics student can do that. The real problem is to determine
which of many possible options to chose when considering the potential
payoff. That is what ANALYSIS mode is designed to help you determine.
How to use ANALYSIS mode and some examples are discussed in detail
later after we cover some basics.
COMMAND SYNTAX:
>KDPOKANL [p,s,x,0-9]
Where:
p - PLAY mode (default - ANALYSIS mode).
s - SOUND on (default - SOUND off).
x - TENS or Better (default - JACKS or Better)
0-9 - SPEED reducer (default - 0 (fastest))
EXAMPLE: > KDPOKANL x2p
(Use NO spaces or commas, order and case make no difference):
SETTINGS:
Tens or Better vs.Jacks or Better:
The lowest value hand that most video poker games will provide a payoff
is usually Jacks or Better. There are some machines that will payback
on Tens or Better. You should note, however, that generally, the payoff
multiples (described below) tend to decrease considerably on Tens or
Better machines. Bet "x" in PLAY mode (no quotes, case makes no diff)
or use "x" as the first position of any card selection in ANALYSIS
mode to toggle between Jacks/Tens or use the "x" parameter from the
command line to set Tens. Jacks is the default.
Payoff Multiples:
The Payoff Multiples is a table that will be found on all machines in one
form or another. Regardless of the form used, they all serve the same
function -- determine how much to return to the player on a "winning"
hand. KDPokAnl uses a table that looks like this:
HAND NAME PAYOFF
JACKS OR BETTER 1 for 1 (Bet Returned)
TWO PAIR 2 for 1
THREE OF A KIND 3 for 1
STRAIGHT 5 for 1
FLUSH 7 for 1
FULL HOUSE 9 for 1
FOUR OF A KIND 25 for 1
STRAIGHT FLUSH 100 for 1
ROYAL FLUSH 1000 for 1
Notice that the table uses the term "for" (e.g. 3 FOR 1). That means
that if you have put in 1 unit (read coin), and your final hand is
Three of a Kind, the machine will payoff 3 units. Your actual net "win"
is only 2 units. By the way, 3 "FOR" 1 and 2 "TO" 1 mean the same thing.
Something worth watching for as you search for machines in a casino!
In case you are wondering what the big deal is about Payoff Multiples,
you should be aware that all video poker machines are not created equal.
The Payoff Multiples will vary from machine to machine even in the same
casino (even in the same row of machines sometimes!). Because of this,
KDPokAnl allows you to set the multiples. Betting "m" in PLAY mode or
using "m" as the first position of any card selection in ANALYSIS mode
will pop-up the Payoff Multiples screen. If you want, you can change any
of the multiples from there. The default multiples (shown above) are
probably about the best you'll find anywhere. Changing these multiples to
match the various machines is imperative to get accurate analysis.
Speed:
Speed is only active in PLAY mode and only affects one thing -- how fast
the cards are dealt. It does not affect calculations, shuffle speed,
etc. It is included in this program simply to make play more comfortable
on fast machines. Speed is controlled by setting a Reducer. 0
reduction is fastest and a reduction factor of 9 is the slowest. Betting
"r" will increment the reduction factor (after it hits 9, it rolls back
to 0). The default reducer is 0. You cannot set speed from ANALYSIS mode.
The reduction factor can also be set as a command line parameter (0-9).
Sound:
There are some elementary sound effects included (coins falling, cards
being turned, counter click, etc.). If you want these sounds on, bet
"s" in PLAY mode or hit "s" as the first position of any card selection
in ANALYSIS mode. The "s" is an on/off toggle. It can also be set as
a command line parameter. Sound off is the default.
PLAYING (PLAY MODE):
Specific playing instructions are displayed on screen when relevant, but
here is a quick synopsis:
BET:
At the BET prompt, just hit the number representing the amount you would
like to wager. The options are 1 - 5 units. Real machines will ask you
to "INSERT 1 - 5 COINS". The term "units" is used just to allow you to
decide which type of machine you are playing (quarter,dollar,etc.).
[Remember, the other settings are also accessed at the BET prompt. Hit
the key letter instead of a 1 - 5.]
DISCARD:
After you have placed your bet, the initial 5 cards will be dealt. You
will then have to indicate which of these 5 cards (if any) you want to
HOLD. Press the key(s) (1 - 5) that correspond to the card(s) you wish
to keep. An indicator will give the current status of each card. The
keys are toggles -- if you make a mistake, just hit it again. Hit ENTER
when you are satisfied. Any card not marked HOLD will be discarded and
replaced.
PAYOFF and STATISTICS:
Upon completion of the discard, the payoff (if any) is automatically
calculated based on the payoff multiples table (see above) and your
current status (ahead/behind) is updated. Additionally, an ongoing
statistics table is maintained just for the heck of it. This table
will continue to accumulate as long as you stay in PLAY mode. Exiting
or moving to ANALYSIS mode then back again will clear it.
At this point you are ready to place another bet and restart the sequence.
ANALYSIS (ANALYSIS MODE):
The best way to explain ANALYSIS mode, both in terms of how to operate the
analysis and why it is of value is to work through an example:
Question: You are playing video poker at your favorite casino. You have
just been dealt Ace of Hearts (AH), King of Clubs(KC), Queen
of Spades(QS), 5 of Diamonds(5D) and 8 of Clubs(8C). What should
you HOLD? The answer may surprise you.
Procedure:
Initial Deal:
From ANALYSIS mode, set up the initial hand by pressing AH,KC,
QS,5D and 8C. You don't need to press ENTER and don't press the
commas. As you complete each card, it will appear.
Discard (Select cards to hold):
After the fifth card is displayed, you will then select the
cards you want to HOLD. For this example,HOLD what seems obvious,
AH,KC,QS by pressing the 1,2 and 3 keys. Make sure that the
word "HOLD" appears under these three cards. Hit ENTER.
Repetitions:
You will then be asked how many repetitions to perform. Based
on the number you enter, the computer will repeatedly reshuffle
the remaining 47 cards, discard the two cards you did not HOLD
(5D and 8C) and replace them with two different cards.[Obviously,
it will never pick those two cards or the three you held -- they
are gone from the deck!] So, input a number - 5000 is a good
place to start - and hit ENTER.
The display will count the number of repetitions performed by
100's. When the 5000 is reached, the detailed results of the
draws are displayed. If you are using a 12mhz AT this will take
about 30 seconds -- a 4.77 mhz machine will take quite a bit
longer. Most of the information is presented for detailed
analysis, if you are interested. The important number is TOTAL
RETURNED. This is the number you will use for comparison after
you run a different draw scenario using the same initial deal.
Either write this number down or hit F5 to print the results --
please be sure you have a printer attached and it is ready.
Comparison:
Now, hit "a" to run another analysis. Select the same five cards.
You can do this easily by just hitting ENTER five times. This
time HOLD only the KC and QS (keys 2 and 3). Hit ENTER when only
those two cards are marked HOLD. Input 5000 for the repetitions
and hit ENTER. After your 5000 draws are counted off, the new
analysis will be displayed. Compare this TOTAL RETURN with the
previous one. You should find that it is better to toss the Ace
along with the 5 and 8 than to keep it! Other possibilities
exist like keeping the Ace/King or just keeping the Ace, etc. If
you think any of the other options are better, try them - that's
what this program is all about.
Other Analysis items:
Manual Repetitions:
Normally, while repetitions are being processed, the drawn cards
are not displayed. Displaying cards is the slowest thing around.
If, for some strange reason, you would like to see the draws
occurring in ANALYSIS mode, enter "m" when asked for repetitions
instead of a number. The draws will proceed based on a key press
instead of automatically and you will be able to see which cards
have been drawn. The counter will count by 1's instead of 100's.
Statistical Theory:
The basis of the reliability of the analysis procedure used in
KDPokAnl is taken from normal statistical theory -- something
like: "When consistently applied to a sufficiently large
universe, any emerging pattern of random events will accurately
reflect the probability of the continuance of that pattern
within definable confidence limits" WHEW! What that means in
KDPokAnl terms is that if you deal enough hands you can be
pretty darn sure that the results you see is what will happen
on a real video poker machine.
The key to the above mouthful is "sufficiently large universe"
or "deal enough hands". What you will find is that some options
can produce results that are very close. Make sure that you use
enough repetitions to nullify the effects of short-term random
chance. Watch for the extremely occasional Royal Flush to screw
up your analysis.
Determining the best draw on these "close calls" is the critical
element in playing video poker correctly -- extending the length
of time you can play before you run out of money. Trust me:
NO MATTER HOW GOOD YOUR PLAYING STRATEGIES ARE FORMULATED, IF
YOU PLAY A VIDEO POKER MACHINE LONG ENOUGH, EVENTUALLY THE
MACHINE WILL WIN.
That is how casinos stay open. The mathematics cannot be beat
over the long haul. Of course in this rendition, you can set
the payoff multiples in such a way that you can win at will. A
real machine won't do that. Play the real machines for fun with
money you can afford to lose. If, because of short term random
chance ("luck") you happen to get ahead, that's great. That can
and will happen. This is also part of why casinos stay open.
People do win once in while. The strategies that you develop
from this program only lessen the odds against you. GOOD LUCK!
More Examples:
In case you are having a hard time trying to make up some hands
that don't have obvious draws, try these:
AC KD JC 4H 8S (notice that the ace and jack are both clubs)
4D 5C 6S 7H 7D (small pair vs an open-ended straight)
4D 5C 7H 8S JD (one big card vs inside straight)
One of the best ways to develop an overall strategy is to just
play the game in PLAY mode and whenever a hand comes up that
you are not sure of, switch to ANALYSIS mode and run the
options through their paces.
REQUISITE DISCLAIMER and OTHER STUFF:
Every reasonable attempt has been made to offer a fun product that
may be of some use and be "bug" free. I (the author) can, however,
offer no guarantees as to the suitability or use of this program.
Therefore (here we go)...
THIS PRODUCT IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND
WITHOUT WARRANTIES EXPRESS OR IMPLIED.
THE USER ASSUMES ALL RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE USE OF THIS PROGRAM.
*** I certainly disavow any responsibility for gambling losses! ***
You may copy and distribute this program freely. Please don't
charge for it and please provide this .DOC file with it.
Anyone who is interested, can send the author (me) $5.00 or so.
(Mainly, I'm curious to see if anyone is interested!)
David A. Befort
KD Ranch Enterprises (c)
Rt.3, Box 8080
Bartlesville, Ok. 74003
P.S. While I'm not a programmer by profession, I have written a few
other things -- usually because I can't find or buy precisely
what I'm looking for. You may see some of these floating around.
KDQwik - a small, easy word processor. Extremely straight
forward for a beginner or an executive, yet with
a few twists (like real-time sort) for the more
aggressive.
KDGraph - a pull-down menu driven graphics package for EGA/VGA.
It's fast and does some 3D stuff along with your basic
bars,lines and pies.
KDCalcG - an EGA/VGA graphics implementation of a hand held
calculator. It has list, print, and does some neat
stuff with its nine memory registers.
KDCalc - a non-graphics version of KDCalcG. Has a few more
functions and can be made memory resident for
pop-up capability.
KDLogic - a set of 5 brain teaser logic puzzles (HiQ,Minefield,
Mastermind,Fifteen Squares and Towers). Program can
made memory resident for quick pop up and down.
KDPoker - There are a lot of good blackjack games, but I couldn't
find a good, true rendition of the Draw Poker machines
that are now extremely popular in Las Vegas, Reno, etc.
Two commercial versions I bought were awful. This plays
pretty much like the real thing.